“Immigrants eating cats and dogs” and “transgender operations on illegal aliens in prisons” were some of the viral remarks that came out of last week’s U.S. presidential debate. In the 90-minute debate, former President Donald Trump and incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris went head-to-head to present their case to the American people and the world. However, when asked about their immigration and border security policies, where the root causes of migration from Central America were mentioned, both candidates left much to be desired. Instead of presenting a clear policy position, they focused on attacking each other.
Meanwhile, 2,000 miles away in Honduras, news outlets have been busy covering one of the most controversial periods of President Xiomara Castro’s administration. Just in three weeks, the Castro government announced its intention to end the extradition treaty with the United States, a drug trafficking scandal erupted involving Castro’s brother-in-law and former member of Congress, and the Honduran people have taken to the streets to demand the resignation of President Castro.
U.S. and Honduras relations are the worst that they have been since the arrival of Castro, and with the U.S. Presidential elections coming up a lot it’s in the air. However, something is clear; we have been here before.
These political chapters are not particularly new or surprising. Trump continues to push the same old anti-immigrant rhetoric in a more incoherent, but similar way to what he did in 2020. While Harris continues to struggle to define her positions and political approach. While in Honduras politics, drug-trafficking scandals are not earth-shattering given the fact that the former president, Juan Orlando Hernandez was convicted to 45 years in prison for drug-trafficking-related crimes.
We have also seen the foreign policies of both Harris and Trump in action in Central America over the past 7 years. So what can we learn from the past, and what can it tell us about the diplomatic dynamic between Honduras and the U.S.
The Trump Years
During Trump’s presidency from 2016 to 2020, his deterrence-first approach towards migration and inconsistent big-stick approach worsen the humanitarian crisis of the region. A migration Deal signed in 2019 forced Mexico and Central America to prevent the arrival of migrants to the Southern border at all costs. This approach led Mexico to militarize its border with Guatemala and create inhumane conditions for millions of migrants including thousands of Hondurans during a global pandemic. Trump also decided to cut aid to the Northern Triangle following the increase of migrants from the region to the United States as a disciplinary action
Yet, while Trump was trying to use the big stick by cutting millions of dollars to humanitarian programs he was praising now-convicted president Juan Orlando Hernandez. Hernandez’s presidency was marked by drug trafficking and militarization and yet became one of Trump’s top allies in the region. Trump praised him multiple times for his efforts to curtail migration despite the drug-trafficking allegations already beginning to emerge.
Given the Castro Administration’s clear stand on U.S. imperialism, it is not hard to imagine a hostile relationship between Honduras and the U.S. during a Trump presidency. However, Trump is inconsistent by nature. For instance, his criticism of El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele at the National Republic Convention surprised many since Bukele seems to be the ideal authoritarian role model that Trump praises. Instead, he accused him of “sending all his criminals” to the United States and doubted his popularity. This inconsistency makes it hard to pinpoint how he will approach Castro’s government given their left-leaning militant approach. But one thing is clear, during the Trump years, his policies were harsh for Hondurans and easy on the authoritarians.
The Biden~Harris Years
For Harris, her role as vice president provides a general idea of what U.S. foreign policy for Honduras will look like.
Under the Biden administration, Harris was tasked with implementing the Strategy for Addressing the Root Causes of Migration in Central America, a plan focused on addressing the region’s socioeconomic and governance challenges through economic and political cooperation. Through a more comprehensive approach, the Biden administration increased the funding for humanitarian programs and collaborated with the private sector and civil society to boost the economies of the Northern Triangle.
U.S. and Honduras relations also experienced a revival at the beginning of the Castro Administration. Harris was present at the inauguration of President Xiomara Castro and soon after the U.S. placed an official ambassador, Laura F. Dogu, in Honduras after only having a Charge de Affairs since 2017. The Castro Administration reciprocated their intention to establish good relations by spending 90 million dollars on a lobbying firm to improve U.S.-Honduras relations in 2022.
However, despite this, the relations between the Biden and Castro administrations have had their rocky patches. Throughout the past two years, the Castro and Biden Administrations by extension of Ambassador Dogu have also created a hate-love relationship.
Ambassador Dogu has not held back when it comes to questionable policy decisions by the Castro Administration. Dogu has expressed concerns about a variety of issues involving Castro’s economic policy, energy reform, and security strategy. While the Castro Administration has not taken criticism well, quoting old Cold War-era rhetoric of U.S imperialism and interventionism to undermine the Dogu’s stand.
Yet, Honduras and the U.S. continue to work together to show a united diplomatic front. Despite the most recent hostile exchange with Ambassador Dogu expressing concern over a meeting between the Former Minister of Security and Venezuelan officials and Castros’ plan to end the extradition treaty with the U.S. Ambassador Dogu continues to work with Honduras foreign minister Enrique Reina. Just last week, on September 6, Dogu met with the newly appointed Minister of Defense, Rixi Moncada, and the same general that met with Venezuelan officials.
This back-and-forth is characteristic of diplomacy. However, with the coming elections, Harris might be pressured to take a stronger approach against corruption in the region. Her background as a public prosecutor is something that has been highlighted as a strength and thus her experience prosecuting transnational criminal organizations has become relevant when dealing with immigration. It is likely that if the ties to drug trafficking keep emerging around the Castro Administration and hostility increases, Biden’s comprehensive plan will be replaced by less flexible diplomatic approaches.
Aid and immigration at the center
Overall, under both Trump and Harris, the relationship between the United States and Honduras seems clear in some respects and uncertain in others. But in considering the future of Honduras in relation to the United States, we must consider the following:
U.S.-Honduran relations are shaped by immigration and aid. Whether through a deterrent policy or a humanitarian approach, the United States’ main goal is to reduce immigration, through financial aid.
The main difference between the Trump Administration and Biden Administration when it comes to Central America is the amount of aid directed to the region. During the Trump administration, the United States allocated about $3.7 billion from 2016 to 2021; however,by 2019, the Trump administration stopped about $396.2 million as punishment for the increase of immigrants coming from Honduras. While the Biden administration proposed allocating $4.0 billion, Harris secured $4.2 billion for private sector investment through her Central America Forward initiative.
U.S. diplomats, experts, and agencies continue to work on the root causes of immigration in Honduras by addressing the climate crisis and socioeconomic challenges through humanitarian programs and investment approaches. For example, through agencies such as USAID, the United States funds public safety initiatives and anti-corruption systems. However, as I mentioned earlier, this initiative is vulnerable to presidential change; for example, when Trump decided to cut aid to the region, it is estimated that about 56% of U.S.-funded projects in the Northern Triangle were affected.
In the end, both Honduras and the U.S. have the same ultimate goal with different motives: to keep Hondurans in Honduras.
But for Hondurans to become less dependent on U.S. aid, they must first take the lead in addressing bad governance. The political scandal of the Castro government this month showed that Honduras continues to be plagued by corruption and drug trafficking, conditions that exacerbate the roots of migration and dependence on U.S. aid.
It is now more important than ever that the Honduran people demand the establishment of an anti-corruption system such as the CICIH, so that the dynamic between Honduras and other foreign governments becomes one of mutual agreement rather than one of control and management.
The U.S. elections will certainly shape U.S.-Honduran relations, but the upcoming Honduran elections will be the one that will determine whether the same old story of aid and immigration will be repeated. Hondurans need to focus their energy on holding their leaders accountable rather than idealizing political parties or foreign governments.
